Commentary on: “Empty Planet; The Shock of Global Population Decline”
by D. Bricker and J. Ibbitson
Had Bricker and Ibbitson written a book about Noah's Flood, the title might have read “Dry Planet,” with a warning of an impending drought. The authors maintain that a disaster of declining global population is imminent. This contrasts with today's global human population of 7.8 B which is at flood stage and is rising steadily at 80 M/year. The concern about a population “collapse” seems premature if not reckless in a world where billions of poor struggle for existence and equity (it has even been suggested that the book was written in irony). Consumption of natural resources is unsustainable and we are fast destroying the Earth's oceans and potable water sources. In its brief existence, the “Empty Planet” (publ 2019) has already performed a disservice by diverting attention away from the reality of unrelenting population growth and by echoing the naysayers who would ”...debunk the myth of a population explosion....”(p. 32) by minimizing the glaring mismatch between global biocapacity and aggregate consumption.
The book takes the contrarian position that ”We must ignore (population decline) no longer.” (p. 226). It maintains that China appears to be on the verge of a collapse of its population. The authors' “solution” to a perceived impending global population collapse includes immigration, although migration simply redistributes but does not alter global population numbers.
In complaining that ”...smaller families...reduce the number of consumers...” and that “...robots have proved pretty useless at purchasing refrigerators...”(p. 236), the authors reveal a bias in favor of ramping up per capita consumption. But even from before 1985, humans' demand for resources exceeded supply, a gap that continues to widen. A fortunate few consume resources at an unsustainable rate on the backs of the many who now suffer in poverty and lack of equity.
Many researchers conclude that the quest for sustainability lies in the stabilization, then steep reduction, of world population and of per capita consumption in the more developed nations. Indeed, in an an odd reversal of its theme the book concludes in a well-camouflaged admission that fewer people would make for a better world. Listed benefits of reduced global population include ”...a major role in limiting C emissions...,” and ”...the best prescription for protecting the seas...”(p. 229-230). The book then equivocates, ”...things have a way of working themselves out,” ”...we will grow fewer, (but) the future will make its own way.”
The bibliographies suggest that the backgrounds of the authors are in Canadian politics rather than in population studies. As alternatives to “Empty Planet,” the following publications argue for a global sustainable future: “Enough is Enough” by Dietz and O'Neill, “Economics of Ideas” (Nobel Prize in Economics 2018) by Paul Romer, and “In Growth We Trust” by Stennett.